As MuhammaduBuhari, a retired
infantry General, resumes as Nigeria’s 4th President in the fourth republic,
expectations are feverishly high.
For some who are not in tune with Nigeria’s chequered leadership history
over the past 55years of independence from Britain, the high hopes might seem
unprecedented, but for those conversant with the perpetually swinging mood of
the Nigerian nation, there is nothing really new.
A quick trip down memory lane will unearth the high hopes with which
Nigerians welcomed the Shehu Shagari civilian administration in 1979, on the
tails of 13 years of straight military rule, during which Nigerians had
experienced mixed fortunes including; two bloody coups in 1966, a bloodier
civil war, an oil boom that saw the young in-experienced leader Yakubu Gowon
boasting that Nigeria’s problem was not money but how to spend it. It was a
period when there was hardly a long term plan for the nation. After 9 years, 38
year old Major General Muritala Mohammed toppled Yakubu Gowon in a bloodless
palace coup, citing profligacy as one of the reasons. Though shocked, Nigerians
welcomed Muritala with expectations. The infantry General introduced some
measures to instil some discipline in a country that was riding high on petro-
Naira, but his regime only lasted 6 months before Dimka, a Colonel, and his
journey men cut him short in a coup that was eventually unsuccessful.
So when General Olusegun Obasanjo was handing over to Shehu Shagari, Nigerians
were already tired of military rule and its attendant draconian mode of
governance and were looking forward to “change”.
However, 4 years down the line, the wanton looting of the treasury, the
mismanagement of the economy, nepotism and all forms of vices had become
pronounced. Nigerians had started tasting the bitter pills of poverty in the
face of so much affluence, while the gluttonous politicians were having the
time of their lives. So the military coup of 1983 was a welcome relief for angry
Nigerians, who were now clamouring for another “change”!
The Buhari / Idiagbon regime came in smoking, dealing decisively with
the issues of indiscipline through corporal punishment. Nigerians cheered when
many of the looting politicians were given absurd jail terms of 100 years and
more by Buhari and Idiagbon. But the mood started changing when the economic
miracles promised was not forth coming. Gradually the grumbling started, the
criticisms started, media men were gagged and jailed, but it did not abate.
Then the cunning Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida gauged the mood of the
country and toppled Buhari in a bloodless coup. Nigerians cheered that another
“change” was coming.
Alas, it was only a couple of years before Nigerians realised that this
was another case of hope shattered, but it took 9 years before Nigerians could
shake off the “evil genius”. However it came at a price - the annulment of
Nigeria’s most transparent elections till date. The June 1993 elections , with
the attendant unanimous choice of Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola,
Nigerians for the first and only time jettisoned tribal, religious and other
primordial sentiments, due largely to MKO Abiola’s antecedents as a
philanthropist and internationally recognised successful businessman, who had
personally touched peoples’ institutions, etc across all geo -
political zones in Nigeria.
Abacha’s brutal years left
Nigerians gasping, such that it was with high expectations that Nigerians
expected CHANGE, when Olusegun Obasanjo, who was saved from the jaws of death in
Abacha’s gulag, was brought straight from prison to preside over Nigeria’s
affairs.
Obasanjo turned another colossal
failure and disappointment in Nigeria’s perpetual quest for change.
UmaruYar’adu who died mid-way into
his first 4 years tenure and the erstwhile President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan,
have not fared better either.
Jonathan on his path has been
heavily criticized in the normal Nigerian fashion of heaping virtually all the
country’s problems on the incumbent. His criticisms by concerted opposition
media efforts have been quite outlandish and almost comical in some instances.
though deserving in other cases.
With Nigeria’s economy in a state of coma, that is at the micro level,
at least in terms of the benefits for more than 85% of the populace. Massive
unemployment, almost non-existent power , energy crisis instigated by the
powerful oil mafia and a host of other daunting situations, a lot of Nigerians
have hooked on to the hope that the CHANGE
promised by Muhammadu Buhari will be delivered in the long run.
However, the man of the moment himself, came down from the euphoric high
of electioneering campaigns to realistically tell his teeming supporters that
it will be quite difficult to effect the changes expected by the people in 4
years.
This realistic assessment of the situation has dampened the enthusiasm
of some, while a lot of his die-hard supporters are of the view that the man
should be given some time to effect the changes that are necessary to fix
Nigeria. The expectation for Buhari are so enormous that only a superhuman
being will not feel overwhelmed by it.
A lot of Nigerians have become so simplistic
that every issue bordering on nationhood no matter how infinitesimal is
expected to be solved by President Buhari.
According to Bayo Alatishe, a social commentator “ The most expectant are
the common man on the streets who believes that Buhari will automatically use a
magic wand to wish Nigeria’s multitude of problems away. To them Buhari will
throw all corrupt politicians in jail and recover all the stolen wealth and use
it to revamp the economy, He will reduce fuel price to N45, build new
refineries, make hospitals work better etc. seriously at this point in time it
is hard to be Muhammadu Buhari. The man must be under pressure”
Corruption continues to be one of
Nigeria’s biggest problems, considering the fact that close to 50% of the
country’s annual budget is frittered away through corrupt practices. This is
bound to be one of Buhari’s biggest head aches. Closely tied to this is the
exorbitant cost of running government. For many of Buhari’ s supporters, the
man is capable of bringing looters to book and making them refund stolen
wealth. On the other hand some Nigerians are of the belief that there are too
many land mines set in the path of getting these thieves convicted. They cite
the fact that non of the governors who served under President Obasanjo 8 years
ago have been convicted since their cases were brought to court.
Speaking with our correspondent a
legal practitioner who declined to have his name in print suggested that” A lot
of Nigerians are stll very naive. They forget that in 1984 Buhari was a
military dictator who could do as he pleased, but today he is a democratically
elected President who must operate by the rule of the law. So getting
convictions in cases of fraud is the problem. Today close to 50 former
governors, ministers, commissioners, etc are in court with cases of fraud
hanging over them. Some of the cases are 10 years old. Its really a tough one
for the incoming government”
The problem of cutting down on government expenditure is where the major
problem lies, which many optimistic Nigerians are very ignorant of. Salaries of
legislators are embedded in the constitution, so change it need an act of the
parliament. Same for number of ministers which must be at least one from each
state in the country. Cutting down on expenses also means that jobs have to be
cut by the Buhari government or on the other hand reducing salaries and
allowances of workers. “ This am not sure even the staunchest Buharisupportr
will agree to” said Okafor Ekwunife,
an Abuja based businessman and economist.
“ Its like a choice between the
devil and the deep blue sea. In fact the first issue is tackling the economy.
There is so much poverty in the land occasioned by both the federal and state
governments, but many Nigerians have allowed the state governors to hoodwink
them into blaming the federal government for their woes. I usually ask what is
the rationle for a man in Owerri to look up to Abuja for jobs and poverty
alleviation incentives when the governor is there. However with the recent
revelations about the monies collected and owed by state governors and yet they
could not pay 7 months salaries, more Nigerians are getting wiser by the day.
The siamese- twin issue of
constant power supply and availability of energy are perhaps the biggest head
aches for Buhari.
These sectors have Nigeria’s most dreaded mafia who can cripple the
country at will. The petrol mafia have constantly demostrated that they hold
the “balls” of Nigeria in their hands, while it has been virtually impossible
for any government in the past 3 decades to guarantee power supply.
Many will want Buhari to face the issue of petrol head on by building
new refineries and making sure that the existing ones are refurbished to refine
at least more than the consumption quota of the country in order to stop
importation. However the fear is that every government since the time if
General Ibrahim BabamasiBabangida have continued to embark on turn around
maintainace of Nigeria’s refineries yet, they have not been able to achieve
even 70% production capacity. This sector is where Buhari is expected to weild
the big stick.
Power supply has been so epileptic in Nigeria that businesses have died
and even the quality of life has nosed dived son much. Lack of constant power
supply has been a source of life expectancy reduction according to some recent
researches. Nigerians need the issue of power to be tackled as fast as
possible. Though Jonathan for the first time privatized power it has not
achieved the desired result within the time frame of his administration, but
experts believe that with time it will take root. But Nigerians are not in a
mood for patience because virtually every aspect of life revolves around power.
Thus it become imperative for Buhari’s administration to tackle power.
However many point to the mafia in the sector, most of whom are into
generator importation, a sector that is worth almost one trillion Naira
annually. Many see this area as another that must be tackled with dispatch.
With challenges staring him in
the face from all sides President Buhari has quite a lot to do. The nation’s
need to diversify has finally dawned on us a nation. Agriculture offers the
fastest way out of the woods. With the solid foundation already laid by the
Jonathan administration through the efforts of his agric minister
AkinwunmiAdesina, things can move faster if Buhari can key into the legacy.
State governments too must be admonished to invest heavily in this area for
food sufficiency, job creation and revenue generation.
There is also the need for the Buahri administration to instl more
confidence in the people, instead of spending so much time lamenting the poor
state of the nation left by the out going government, which will become counter
productive in the long run.
Buhari needs to start firing the
zeal and nationalism of the masses through motivation and selfless actions. He
should lead by example. He should try as much as possible to promote
nationalistic symbols of love and unity, discipline and frugality. If possible
revive the War Against Indiscipline that made him popular in the 80s, but this
time as a social revolution.
Fixing Nigeria is never going to be an easy task, especially at a time
that there is so much acrimony amongst several sections of the country, the
most important task is for him to reach out and try to be a father to the
nation. The crippling poverty in the land is awesome, job creation is a
necessity that must be tackled immediately. Some experts suggest that instead
of pumping scarce resources on social security, it will make more sense to
create a governmental micro credit
scheme at zero interest, for people to start small businesses that will
revitalize the economy.
Many Nigerians believe that it is not realistic to expect Buhari to fix
the country in such a short time, they however expect some meaning ful
improvement within 6months to a year in areas like power, job creation,
tackling corruption and fixing fuel problems.
Nigerians look forward to the first six months to one year of Buhari’s administration with high expectations,
at which point they can judge if he is taking the right steps to fix Nigeria or
not.
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